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How many games can you lose?

How many games can you lose?

Vital Blackburn member Ex Ewood Resident's thoughts on the number of games you can lose before you are out of the title race.

Given the relatively poor start (by their standards) of the top four Premiership contenders, how many games can a side lose before we can consider their title race over?

Of course this is all pure conjecture, as we know because the title is rarely won before the end of July.

However, just like the magic 40 points that is every teams first target that usually ensures survival, is there a number of dropped points that could rule out their chances of being crowned Champions? Or is it the number of losses, ignoring draws, that counts?

Over the past 5 seasons the number of lost games that could have still won the Premiership is between 4 and 6 (remember this is based on beating second place) Arsenal's 0 losses in the 2004 season were tempered by 12 draws (the highest number of draws by any champion in the past 5 seasons). Rovers won the Championship in 1995 with an amazing 7 defeats! So that implies that it is points dropped that counts...

So what is the magic figure?


Over the past 5 seasons no one has won the Championship without dropping less than 30 points. Second place has always dropped more than 30 points. The exception to this was in 2003 when United won the title by dropping 31 points to Arsenal's 36

The full results:
Chelsea - 23 Dropped Points
United - 31 Dropped Points

Chelsea - 19 Dropped Points
Arsenal - 31 Dropped Points

Arsenal - 24 Dropped Points
Chelsea - 35 Dropped Points

United - 31 Dropped Points
Arsenal - 36 Dropped Points

Arsenal - 27 Dropped Points
Liverpool - 34 Dropped Points

This article was written by Vital Blackburn member Ex Ewood Resident.

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Date:Friday October 6 2006
Time: 10:40AM


Although this site is primarily for Rovers news and views we aim to cater for the masses here also, so this is an interesting article, giving some insight into what it takes to win the title!
Hughes Da Man
06/10/2006 10:43:00
so in theory you could lose up to 9 games and stioll be in with a shout ??, that is an interesting read mate well done ! I always thought it would only be dropping about 12-15 points would be the magic number ...
06/10/2006 10:46:00
Interestingly Rovers lost 7 games and 8 draws on our way to the title that was a massive 37 points!
Ex Ewood Resident
06/10/2006 11:27:00
It is surprising that so many points could in theory be lost. I think this season could maybe see the winners being somewhere near Rovers' 37 dropped points as the gap between top and mid table at least closes, the league is getting closer and closer all the time.
Hughes Da Man
06/10/2006 12:02:00
i must be bored.... At current ratios Chelsea and United have dropped 5 points - we're a fifth of the season in (18.42% to be precise) therefore on current trends they will drop 27 points by the end of the season. Arsenal (with one game in hand) are 15.29% into their season and have already dropped 7 points and therefore at the end of the season will have dropped a massive 44 points! Rovers have already dropped 10 points and therefore could be expected to drop 54 by the end of the season. Liverpool have already dropped 11 points and their trend is 60 dropped points by the end of the season! I feel sorry for Charlton at current rates they'll finish the season on "Sunderland Style" 16 points! It just goes to show what a lot of ********* this all is except as a way to avoid me actually doing any work yet look like I am working... I still think the 30 points still stands.
Ex Ewood Resident
06/10/2006 13:54:00
Keep the stats coming they are very interesting, if it keeps you looking liek you are working carry on. It would be interesting to see how close, if at all the points dropped will actually be come May.
Hughes Da Man
06/10/2006 15:35:00
well funny how its always Chelsea Arsenal Man U or Liverpool ? I think some other clubs will be riseing e.g. Blackburn
06/10/2006 20:19:00
They will, players are not as keen to sign for Chelsea now are they as they might not play, to a degree the same is happening with hte other big teams, so if the Blackburn's etc. keep picking up quality, so long as they can keep it they will continue to make ground and who knows what will happen.
Hughes Da Man
06/10/2006 23:39:00
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