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A VBer predicts

Should we be Panicking? After the Blackpool result, a few doubts have crept into the back of my mind, can we stay up? Will we go down? Right now I can't decide, so I decided to take in-depth look of our run in fixtures to predict where we will finish this season.

Now according to Steve Kean the ultimate answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and everything is 42 (grats if you get the reference).

Now I've used this number for a few seasons now and it's proven to be right on most occasions, so ill base this commentary on that.

At the time of writing we are in 13th place, one point above the bottom 3, with the worst form in the premier league (except maybe Sunderland?). Our last eight fixtures are; Arsenal away, Birmingham at home, Everton away, Manchester City at home, Bolton at home, West Ham away, Manchester United at home, And Wolves away.

Now using my brain and not my heart, I can say that arsenal will most probably beat us at the Emirates, a draw would be a great result but I can't see it right now, (unless Lehman and Dunn are playing). So our tally so far is still at 33 points.

Birmingham at home is a game that could go either way, a hard game but a winnable one, so I'm going to plump for a home win (No, I have never been sectioned). So that gives us a total 36 points.

Everton away is another one that could go either way, now last time I went on a trip to Goodison Park we won, but right now Saha is on form and he can turn games. So taking this into account I'll be prudent and say a draw.

This leaves us at 37 points.

After Everton away our next game is Manchester city at home, now id love to stay we will get a draw, or even a win it but then again I said I'm using my brain for this passage, and so ill say man city will beat us. So our total will still be at 37 points.

Next is the derby against Bolton, now Bolton are flying high right now but I think we can bring them back to earth at home, we are the kings of Lancashire after all (even if we have been beat by Blackpool (ed - not quite!!!), Bolton and Wigan this season), they beat us at the Reebok and now its time for revenge, 3 points and our total will be 40 points.

That leaves us with needing 2 points from our last three games, which is going to be difficult to say the least.

Our last three games are West Ham away, Manchester United at home, and Wolves away, West Ham are our bogey team, they did us a favour with that draw to United all them seasons ago, but we have paid them back for that over the years.

West Ham are beatable (ed - bogey team however), but I'll go with a draw.

This gives us 41 points.

United at home is also a difficult game, I still say we can get a draw, and maybe a win if united have won the premiership at this point, but ill be prudent and say the premiership will go to the wire like in previous seasons. They will beat us. (Probably a dodgy penalty, or one that hasn't gone over the line).

That leaves us with Wolves away, now Wolves are in the same boat as us right now, fighting for survival.

If they have a chance of staying up they will do all they can on the last day, if they have been relegated already I'd say we will beat them, but if they haven't, I can only see us getting a draw or maybe being beat. I predict it will be a draw at the Molineux, this gives us 42 points.

And 42 is a magic number.

Now don't take this as me saying we will definitely be staying up and that there's nothing to worry about, because its not.

There are thousands of things that could happen to change my predictions, what if Robbo gets injured? What if Kean is sacked? What if the sky falls down? (More chance of happening than Grella ever being fit.)

But then again there are other things that could happen to help us, what if we do actually beat arsenal for example? Stranger things have happened before.

LHrover - Always Faithful, Sometimes Optimistic, Never Fickle.

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The Journalist

Writer: Mikey Delap Mail feedback, articles or suggestions

Date:Monday March 21 2011

Time: 9:07AM

Your Comments (oldest first)

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Good read!
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21/03/2011 12:40:00

Good read indeed and I like your optimism. I’m of the thought that we will stay up but not with 42 points, more like 39. I think it will be more down to the other teams below us having bad run ins than us pulling clear. Having had a look through all final fixtures for the teams below us I reckon the following: Wigan – down. West Ham at home is the only “banker” you could say for sure. Birmingham – safe. Have enough winnable home games left you would think. Aston Villa – safe. Plenty of quality even if on a bad run. Home games look winnable. Blackpool – down. I just think they will get caught out with their defensive weaknesses and a not ideal run in. West Brom – down. Really harsh looking run and will need away results to save them. West Ham – safe. Will be close but think they’ve turned a corner and can pick up enough points. Wolves – safe. Battling hard and have a decent run of home games left – including us! Please note I have no ill will towards any of these teams and no preference who goes down – apart from Rovers!
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21/03/2011 13:22:00

As always admire your faith, but on stats which don't lie, i can't see how we can assume we will get 1 more point never mind enough to stay up. As each week goes by, the pressure mounts for each club involved in the race for survival. Its how those players dal with that pressure. The table can change each week and will do, but if 3 or 4 teams put back to back wins together any team could findthemselves cut adrift so very quickly. E.g if we won our next 2 fixtures the panic be over, however if its the teams around us that get them results and we don't then we may find oursleves trying to eat up ground which is near impossible. No point looking further than our next fixture IMO, cos we can't rely on latter fixtures to save us. We need to try and get wins now, win our next 3 games and relax, I would not want to go into our last fixture requiring points to stay up or indeed relying on others to get us out of this mess. We got ourselves in this, and us and only us can get us out of it, that must start with a win at Arsenal. If we are a club deserving of Premiership status then we need to go to Arsenal and win. Nothing less will do, If we can't get 3 points against teams like Stoke, West ham and Blackpool then we need to get them from somewhere else, and that somewhere better be Arsenal
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21/03/2011 13:29:00

I am with you here LH... back the boys! :)
Mikey Delap
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21/03/2011 15:13:00

nice article, 42 at least! and agreed Glen- the points at Arsenal while bloody difficult, need to be played for
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22/03/2011 03:07:00


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